Case Study Metabical

Examine methods for directing demand of a current product and estimating profitability. R/ The different foretelling methods bunghole be split up in two categories.1. Qualitative methods these types of methods argon usually base on the opinion of people, some of these methods arExecutive committee consensus develop medium-long forecast by asking a group of knowledgeable executives their opinions with regard to afterlife tense values of the items being forecasted. Dolphin method involves a group of experts who last develop a consensus they usually make long range forecasts for early technologies or future sales of a new product.Sales force composite plant sales people are a good source of selective information with regard to customers future intentions to buy the new product.Customer surveys by victimisation a customer survey, a company thunder mug base its demand forecast on the customers purchasing plans.2. Quantitative methods These methods forecast demand levels ba sed on analysis of historical time series.Quantitative methods are used to estimate future demands as a function of agone data appropriate when one-time(prenominal) data are available. The method is usually utilize to short-intermediate range decisions.Forecasts based on historical data these methods are probably the simplest ones to deploy and can be accurate over the short term.Naive methods these are the most woo-efficient and efficient objective forecasting model. For stable time series data, this draw close says that the forecast for any period equals the previous periods actual value. Moving number An indicator frequently used in technical analysis wake the average value of a securitys price over a castigate period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and delimit areas of possible support and resistance.Exponential smoothing is a technique that can be applied to time series data, either to produce smoothed data for presentation, or to make forec asts. The time series data themselves are a epoch of observations. The observed phenomenon whitethorn be an essentially random process, or it may be an orderly, but noisy, process.Whereas in the simple moving average the past observations are weighted equally, exponential smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights over time.Trend analysis method These methods involve determining the trend of consumption based on past consumption and project future consumption by extrapolating this trend.Decomposition of time series is a statistical method that deconstructs a time series into notional components.Associative (causal) forecastsRegression analysis includes a large group of methods that can be used to predict future values of variable using information about other variables.These methods include both parametric (linear or non-linear) and non-parametric techniques.Econometric modeling An frugal indicator indicates change in the magnitude of an economic variable. It gives the sig nal about the direction of change in an economic variable. roughly methods for estimating profits are Absolute Return The Absolute Return method calculates the cost of the shares or units in a firm, by determining the marrow cost associated with the open position, divided by the number of shares or units owned.The native cost is based on the total expenditure associated with buying shares and options (including component fees and stamp duty), less any income received from dividends or gains or losings associated with selling shares and options. The Absolute return is a very effective substance of determining your overall return on a position if you are actively trading an investment as it provides a rolling cipher of your return. Pooling Method This method uses pooling to calculate the cost and related return. When shares or units are acquired, the number of shares or units in the pool increases and the amount paid for them is added to the cost of the pool.